On Saturday, the BYU football team will seek to recover from recent setbacks as they prepare to face TCU. Currently ranked twelfth in the College Football Playoff standings, the Cougars are still in control of their destiny regarding the Big 12 championship game. However, to maintain this control, they must perform well against the Horned Frogs.
Heading into the matchup, BYU is favored by 4.5 points. Advanced analytics present a mixed perspective regarding the Cougars” chances. Some models are more optimistic about BYU”s prospects than others.
According to BCFToys, which utilizes the FEI metric, BYU has a 72.1% probability of defeating TCU, with a projected final outcome of 30.2 to 21.6 in favor of the Cougars. In their rankings, BYU holds the 18th spot nationally, with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 18th and an offensive ranking of 22nd. In comparison, TCU ranks 31st overall, with both offensive and defensive ratings at 32nd.
ESPN”s Bill Connelly developed the SP+ predictive metric, which offers a slightly lower estimate for BYU, giving them a 69% chance to secure a victory and an expected score of 30 to 23. BYU”s SP+ ranking stands at 22nd, buoyed by strong performances from their defense and special teams, which are ranked 19th and 22nd, respectively. The Cougars” offense, however, has slipped, dropping from 25th to 39th after a challenging game against Texas Tech. TCU, on the other hand, is positioned 39th in SP+, with its offensive capabilities ranked 35th, defensive capabilities at 47th, and special teams at a troubling 120th.
SP+ highlights a significant advantage for BYU in special teams, an area where they have excelled compared to TCU.
When considering the Football Power Index (FPI), the outlook for BYU improves slightly, with a 73.8% chance of winning. Meanwhile, CFB Graphs provides a more conservative estimate, projecting a 59.8% likelihood for BYU, with a final score forecast of 27 to 22.
Several key factors suggest BYU may have the upper hand in this contest:
- Offensive Performance: Despite a drop in rankings following their game against Texas Tech, BYU still boasts a quality drive rate ranking of 29th. In contrast, TCU allows a quality drive rate of 46.2%, placing them at 96th nationally. This indicates that BYU should have opportunities to move the football effectively.
- Defensive Success on Early Downs: BYU has shown proficiency in putting opposing offenses in challenging situations, ranking 34th in early down defensive success rate. TCU struggles in this area, holding an 83rd ranking for their offense”s early down success. This could lead to crucial third down scenarios where BYU”s defense, ranked 15th in third down success rate, will be tested against TCU”s equally ranked offense.
Quarterback Josh Hoover of TCU is known for his ability to make high-caliber throws in critical moments, presenting a significant challenge for the BYU defense.
As the game approaches, both teams will be keenly aware of the stakes involved, with BYU aiming to solidify their path to the championship while TCU looks to disrupt those plans.
