As fantasy football enthusiasts weigh their options for Week 11, the decision between D”Andre Swift and Woody Marks emerges as a critical one. Both players share backfield duties, yet one is projected to have greater touchdown potential this week.
In fantasy football, unless you have a top-tier running back, start/sit decisions are commonplace. Players like David Montgomery and Aaron Jones may come to mind, alongside others such as Chase Brown, Alvin Kamara, and Jaylen Warren. These athletes often trend toward starting positions but remain uncertain choices. Today, we focus on D”Andre Swift and Woody Marks, evaluating which player is a better start for Week 11.
The Case for D”Andre Swift
According to his Week 11 ranking, Swift is positioned as RB19, reflecting a productive season thus far. He has registered 113 attempts, accounting for 40% of his team”s rushes, resulting in 544 yards and 4 touchdowns. Additionally, he has contributed 23 receptions for 210 yards and another touchdown. Currently, Swift ranks as RB17, making him a solid option as an RB2 on fantasy rosters.
Recent weeks have seen Kyle Monangai increase his role within the Bears” backfield, a shift partially influenced by Swift”s earlier absence. However, Monangai has earned his share of the workload. Generally, the backfield split has leaned toward Swift, approximately two-to-one in his favor. In his return during Week 10, Swift played 62% of the snaps, while Monangai saw 38%. Coaching comments suggest that this split will remain consistent, likely around 60/40%.
This week, the Bears will take on the Minnesota Vikings in Minnesota. The Vikings” run defense ranks 22nd in the NFL, which bodes well for the Bears, who have the second-best rushing attack. With a top-five ranking in run blocking win rate, the Bears are expected to capitalize on this matchup. Given the Bears” average of 147.3 rushing yards per game, Swift is projected to claim 50-55% of those rushing yards, anticipating around 80 yards for the game. His touchdown ceiling and floor appear to be equally promising.
The Case for Woody Marks
On the flip side, Woody Marks has emerged as the leading running back for the Houston Texans over the past month, a development not surprising given that Nick Chubb is nearing the end of his career following an injury. Over nine games, Marks has recorded 81 attempts, totaling 304 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has also added 15 receptions for 183 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air, ranking as RB27, despite a late surge into his current role.
Marks” snap count has fluctuated, but since Week 3, he has only once had a lower snap count than Chubb. Following the Texans” Week 6 bye, Marks has commanded 65% of team snaps, compared to Chubb”s 35%. This distribution is expected to hold steady as the season progresses. In Week 11, the Texans will face the Tennessee Titans, who rank 27th in rushing yards allowed per game and 31st in fantasy points surrendered to running backs. While the Texans are only 22nd in rushing yards per game, they hold an advantage in this matchup. Houston ranks 15th in run blocking win rate in contrast to Tennessee”s 26th in run stop win rate.
Start “Em Sit “Em: D”Andre Swift vs Woody Marks
Ultimately, choosing between Swift and Marks is a challenging decision. Marks has a slightly better split, yet Swift operates within a more effective offense. When considering touchdown potential, Swift appears more likely to find the end zone. Both running backs are projected to receive 10-15 carries, making it unlikely that either will surpass 100 rushing yards. Thus, a single touchdown can significantly enhance their fantasy value.
Excluding Monangai”s red zone touches in Week 9, the breakdown indicates that Swift has 21 red zone touches compared to Marks” 10. There are no indications that Monangai will take those crucial touches away from Swift, who is expected to handle approximately 65-70% of the rushing attempts. The Bears rush the ball 62% of the time when in the red zone and are expected to score around 23 points this week, translating to roughly 2.4 touchdowns. In contrast, the Texans run the ball 41% of the time in the red zone, with Marks claiming 43% of those attempts. He is projected to secure 50-60% of the attempts moving forward, but with a lower likelihood of scoring, equating to around 20-25% of the team”s touchdowns. The Texans are expected to score around 22.5 points this week, resulting in approximately 2.1 touchdowns.
In conclusion, for a greater likelihood of scoring a touchdown, start D”Andre Swift.
