San Diego State is set to return to postseason football for the first time in three years as they prepare to take on the No. 23 North Texas Mean Green in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl this Saturday. The kickoff is scheduled for 2:45 PM PT at University Stadium in Albuquerque, with the game being broadcast on ESPN.
According to FanDuel, San Diego State enters the game as a 3.5-point underdog, with a moneyline of +138, while North Texas stands at -166. The over/under for the matchup is established at 53.5 points.
San Diego State will return to Albuquerque a month after a double-overtime loss to New Mexico in their regular-season finale. The Aztecs finished the season in a four-way tie for the top spot in the Mountain West, boasting a 6-2 conference record alongside New Mexico, Boise State, and UNLV. The conference opted to use computer rankings to determine which teams would compete in the championship game, ultimately selecting Boise State and UNLV. Boise State went on to lose in the Los Angeles Bowl against Washington.
This season has marked a significant turnaround for the Aztecs under second-year head coach Sean Lewis, who led the team to a record of 3-9 last year and a 2-5 conference record. San Diego State was predicted to finish eighth in the Mountain West this season, and had they emerged victorious against New Mexico on November 28, they would have hosted the conference championship.
As they prepare for this bowl game, San Diego State looks ahead to joining a revamped Pac-12 next season alongside fellow Mountain West teams such as Boise State, Fresno State, Utah State, and Colorado State. They will join existing Pac-12 members including Washington State and Oregon State, as well as newcomer Texas State, with Gonzaga also joining in basketball.
On the defensive front, San Diego State ranks fifth in scoring defense, allowing an average of 12.6 points per game. They also excel in pass efficiency defense (third), pass defense (fifth), and total defense (seventh). In contrast, North Texas leads in scoring offense and ranks highly in passing metrics, with quarterback Drew Mestemaker achieving a 70.2% completion rate and throwing for 4,129 yards, along with 31 touchdowns this season.
However, San Diego State will be without their starting quarterback Jayden Denegal, who is sidelined due to surgery on his non-throwing shoulder. Backup Bert Emanuel Jr. will take the reins in his absence.
As the teams gear up for the bowl game, notable betting trends include North Texas holding an impressive 9-1 record against the spread as 3.5-point favorites, while San Diego State has achieved nine wins against the spread in 12 games this season and has hit the over in three of their contests.
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