As the San Francisco 49ers prepare to clash with the Philadelphia Eagles this Wild Card Weekend, all eyes will be on running back Christian McCaffrey. This season has been one of the least efficient for McCaffrey, and he will encounter a formidable Eagles defense.
The matchup features two teams that have each represented the NFC in the last three Super Bowls, with the 49ers entering the contest with a 12-5 record against the Eagles at 11-6. The defending champions possess several advantages on both sides of the ball, which could lead to valuable player prop opportunities.
Quarterback Brock Purdy has had his struggles this season, tossing ten interceptions in just nine games, with most occurring during in-breaking routes. The Eagles” defense excelled in defending these routes, allowing a league-low completion percentage of 51.9%. This statistic marks the lowest rate for a defense in a single season since 2016. Furthermore, Philadelphia maintained a league-low 40.9% completion rate on intermediate passes throughout the first 17 weeks.
Purdy has targeted intermediate routes 24.6% of the time, making it the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Given the likelihood of a trailing game script, Purdy may be forced to attempt risky throws to regain ground.
On the other side, wide receiver A.J. Brown has thrived against zone coverage, catching 38 of 49 targets for 478 yards and two touchdowns since the Week 9 bye, with seven of his eight highest receiving-yard games occurring during this stretch. The Eagles utilized Cover 3 on 36.9% of opponents” dropbacks and Cover 4 on 25.1%, ranking among the top five in the league. Brown”s ability to exploit soft spots in zone coverage on hitch routes has been notable, as he recorded 263 receiving yards and a touchdown on such routes, the second-most in the NFL.
With the Eagles ranking 10th in overall rushing defense efficiency and sixth in defending designed runs, McCaffrey”s workload will be crucial. However, game script will play a significant role in the outcome. In the five losses the 49ers suffered this season, McCaffrey averaged just 12.4 carries per game. Notably, he faced a loaded box on only 28% of his carries, a career-low, despite the 49ers encountering loaded boxes at the second-highest rate in the league.
As the Eagles are favored to win and likely to control the game, it”s reasonable to expect McCaffrey to remain under his projected total carries.
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In summary, the upcoming showdown promises to be a thrilling encounter, with both teams looking to leverage their strengths and exploit the weaknesses of their opponents.
