The Houston Texans are set to face the New England Patriots in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. This matchup comes after the Texans secured a decisive wild-card victory against the Steelers, extending their winning streak to ten games. The game will take place with the Patriots favored by three points and a total set at 41.
Despite a few missteps from quarterback C.J. Stroud, who had four turnover-worthy plays in the previous game, the Texans” defense shone brightly. Their performance included two touchdowns scored by the defense in the fourth quarter, reinforcing the adage that “defense wins championships.” Under the leadership of coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans” defense ranks second in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. They have also limited opponents to the lowest scoring drive rate in the league at 27.6%, which has attracted a significant amount of betting interest in Houston”s favor. The predictive model from PFF indicates an 8.8% expected value on the Texans” moneyline.
However, the Patriots should not be overlooked. Led by rookie quarterback Drake Maye, New England has demonstrated an explosive offensive capability. They finished the regular season with the highest EPA per dropback and led the league with an 18.1% explosive pass play rate. Although the Texans boast a formidable defense, they have struggled against deep passes, allowing the ninth-most completions on throws of 20 or more yards.
As the Texans prepare for this critical matchup, the absence of wide receiver Nico Collins, who remains in concussion protocol, has opened opportunities for rookie Jayden Higgins. With Collins likely sidelined, Higgins is expected to take on a larger role in the Texans” aerial attack. In his first season, Higgins has impressed, holding a PFF receiving grade of 79.1 since Week 10, ranking him 16th among 90 qualifying receivers. In games where Collins has been unavailable, Higgins has stepped up effectively, making him a player to watch.
A key betting recommendation is to consider taking the over on Higgins” receptions, currently set at 3.5, which offers a favorable +125 odds. This could be a solid opportunity for bettors given the current circumstances surrounding the Texans” receiving corps.
