The NFL divisional round is upon us, featuring four intriguing matchups. Following a wild-card round that saw three surprising upsets, including victories by two No. 6 seeds, the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers, questions arise about whether more surprises are in store. This weekend, the focus turns to the underdogs: the Bills, 49ers, Houston Texans, and Chicago Bears, each facing tough challenges against higher-seeded opponents.
Beginning with the match between the Bills and the Denver Broncos, Buffalo must find ways to counter Denver”s heavy use of man coverage. The Broncos” defensive strategy, which includes a league-high 60.8% of opponent dropbacks played in man coverage, will test the Bills” offensive coordinator, Joe Brady. To succeed, the Bills need to execute quick throws, utilizing slot receiver Khalil Shakir for effective three-step routes. Additionally, they can take advantage of one-on-one matchups for receivers Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman.
Defensively, the Bills have to maintain their identity of playing two-high coverage. By rotating safeties and effectively reading the offense, they can disrupt the Broncos” quarterback, Bo Nix, who has struggled against zone coverage this season. A key player for Buffalo will be safety Cole Bishop, who previously secured a decisive interception in their wild-card game.
Next, the 49ers are set to clash with the Seattle Seahawks. Despite a challenging matchup, especially without tight end George Kittle, the 49ers must create passing opportunities against Seattle”s Cover 2 defense. Quarterback Brock Purdy needs to connect on deeper routes, aided by play-action to draw in linebackers and safeties from their zones. Players like Jauan Jennings and Demarcus Robinson will be crucial in finding space in the secondary.
On defense, stopping the Seahawks” run game is imperative. The 49ers must cut off outside runs and maintain discipline against the Seattle zone run schemes to limit their success. This strategy is vital given the recent performance of running back Kenneth Walker III.
The Houston Texans are also looking to pull off an upset, facing the New England Patriots. With wide receiver Nico Collins sidelined, offensive coordinator Nick Caley will need to innovate, focusing on high-low reads to generate explosive plays. Quarterback C.J. Stroud can target players like Christian Kirk to exploit coverage weaknesses.
Defensively, the Texans could disrupt Patriots quarterback Drake Maye by using man-free coverage to challenge his timing on short throws. Key defenders, including cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, are expected to play crucial roles.
Finally, the Chicago Bears face a daunting task against the Los Angeles Rams. The Bears aim to utilize 12 personnel groupings to enhance their passing game, allowing quarterback Caleb Williams to make deeper throws under pressure. Meanwhile, defensively, they need to employ two-man coverage on third downs to contain quarterback Matthew Stafford and limit open routes for receivers like Puka Nacua.
Each of these underdog teams has a path to victory, employing strategic adjustments and leveraging key player performances. The outcomes could lead to even more surprises in this year”s playoff race.
