Former Green Bay Packers quarterback Malik Willis has officially signed a three-year contract with the Miami Dolphins. This move has significant implications for the Packers” future draft strategy, particularly with their projected compensation for the 2027 NFL Draft.
The Packers entered the offseason with hopes of gaining a pair of third-round compensatory draft picks due to the loss of both Willis and Rasheed Walker, who secured lucrative contracts in free agency. Current projections from OverTheCap.com indicate that the Packers will likely receive one compensatory pick. Specifically, they are expected to gain a fourth-round pick for Willis departing to the Dolphins, as well as a fourth-round pick for losing Romeo Doubs to the Patriots, a fifth-round pick for Quay Walker”s move to the Raiders, and a sixth-round pick for Kingsley Enagbare”s transfer to the Jets.
However, if Willis can remain healthy and perform well in Miami, there is a possibility that the fourth-round pick could escalate to a third-round selection. According to Nick Korte from OverTheCap, who specializes in compensatory picks, the current projection does not factor in any snap-count benefits for Willis, as he has primarily served as a backup during his career thus far. Korte stated, “Before the regular season, OTC”s program for the compensatory-picks projection estimates snap counts based on the average of the prior four seasons.” He further elaborated that if Willis becomes the Dolphins” starting quarterback and plays a substantial portion of the 2026 season, the value of his contract could indeed shift to a third-round compensatory pick.
The awarding of compensatory picks follows a confidential NFL formula, one that Korte has largely deciphered. The average annual salary plays a crucial role, alongside the amount of playing time. Willis” new contract averages $22.5 million annually, further solidifying his status as the Dolphins” starting quarterback.
Securing that potential third-round pick is vital for the Packers. Last season”s third-round compensatory selections were ranked 97th, 98th, and 99th overall, while the fourth-round picks began at 135th. This 38-pick difference represents a notable gap in player quality. Historically, players selected within the first tier have a higher chance of being impactful, with numerous Pro Bowl selections and substantial career starts.
In contrast, the fourth-round picks last year began at 135, which included only a handful of players who made significant impacts. For instance, only two of those players were selected to a Pro Bowl, while more than twenty of the players from the third-round tier started at least 50 games in their careers.
In addition to Willis, the projections indicate that Doubs is positioned in the middle of the fourth-round compensatory picks, whereas Walker is at the top of the fifth-round compensatory selections. Unfortunately for Walker, after encountering various challenges this offseason, including a gun charge and inconsistent performance, he ended up signing a one-year contract with the Panthers worth $4 million, which does not yield any compensatory pick for the Packers.
Despite not having a first-round draft pick in both the upcoming and subsequent drafts, the Packers have ample compensatory picks that will aid in compensating for that absence in 2027. Their projected selections could include:
- First round: None.
- Second round: One.
- Third round: Two (including the Willis compensatory pick).
- Fourth round: Three (including picks from the Rashan Gary trade and Doubs).
- Fifth round: Two (including the Quay Walker compensatory pick).
- Sixth round: One (after trading their pick for Darian Kinnard, they would have the Enagbare compensatory pick).
- Seventh round: One.
With these selections, the Packers could potentially have six picks within the top 135 and eight within the top 175. Compensatory picks can also be traded, giving Brian Gutekunst the flexibility to maneuver during an anticipated strong draft class.
With over two decades of experience covering the Green Bay Packers, Bill Huber has established a reputation for deep insights and thorough analysis. He is the publisher of Packers On SI, a channel under the Sports Illustrated umbrella.
