This weekend presents a significant opportunity for BYU as the team looks to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship. The conference announced that both BYU and Texas Tech are the only teams with a chance to clinch a title position this weekend.
According to the Big 12, there are two possible scenarios that could lead to BYU”s qualification for the title game. The first scenario requires three outcomes to unfold in BYU”s favor:
- BYU must defeat Cincinnati.
- Houston needs to lose to TCU.
- Arizona State must lose to Colorado.
First and foremost, a victory over Cincinnati is essential for BYU, as there is no path to clinching the title without this win. Additionally, BYU will need assistance from both TCU and Colorado. The Football Power Index (FPI) gives BYU a 67.5% chance of winning against Cincinnati, while TCU has a 53.2% probability of defeating Houston. Colorado, on the other hand, is given a 36.8% chance to overcome Arizona State. When combined, the likelihood of all three results occurring in favor of BYU stands at 13.2%.
The second scenario presents a more favorable outlook numerically. Again, BYU and Colorado must emerge victorious, but this time, the involvement of BYU”s archrival, Utah, is pivotal. If Utah secures a win against Kansas State, it would further benefit BYU”s chances:
- BYU beats Cincinnati.
- Arizona State loses to Colorado.
- Utah beats Kansas State.
The combined odds for this scenario falling into place are calculated at 22.0%. Overall, BYU has a 35.2% chance that one of these scenarios will play out favorably, allowing them to clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game.
Importantly, BYU is among the few teams in the conference that controls its own destiny. Alongside Texas Tech, BYU does not have to rely on other teams” results this weekend. If the Cougars win their remaining games, they will secure their position in the Big 12 Championship, regardless of the outcomes of other matchups in the coming weeks.
Stay tuned for more updates and coverage on BYU football as they navigate this crucial moment in their season.
