The race for the prestigious Heisman Trophy is intensifying as the finalists prepare for the announcement on Saturday, just ahead of the Big Ten Championship game. Among the leading candidates are Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin.
Previously, analysts had suggested that Texas quarterback Arch Manning, Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith would be among the top contenders. However, none of these players received invitations to the Heisman ceremony. Instead, the finalists for the 91st Heisman Trophy include Mendoza, Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, and Sayin.
The winner is set to be revealed at 8 PM ET on ABC from the Appel Room at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York City. Let”s delve into the statistics of each finalist and their national rankings among qualified players at their respective positions.
Mendoza recently warmed up ahead of the Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium, while Pavia showcased his skills against Tennessee at Neyland Stadium. Love celebrated a touchdown against Syracuse at Notre Dame Stadium, and Sayin threw passes during the Big Ten Conference championship game against Indiana.
Although the odds seem to favor one candidate heading into Saturday”s ceremony, the competition was fierce throughout the season. As the regular season concluded, the Heisman Trophy race remained highly competitive among these four players. Love amassed impressive statistics, including 338 yards and four touchdowns in the two weeks leading to the regular season finale. Unfortunately, he suffered an injury during the Stanford game, limiting him to 66 yards and a touchdown.
Winning the Heisman as a running back has proven increasingly difficult, and Love needed a standout performance to stay in contention, especially without competing in his conference championship. Despite this, Love remains a worthy finalist, ranking second nationally with 21 touchdowns. Notre Dame”s exclusion from the College Football Playoff has cut his collegiate career short, but he is projected as the number one overall prospect in ESPN”s 2026 NFL Draft rankings.
Pavia made a strong impression in his regular-season finale, leading Vanderbilt to a decisive 21-point victory over No. 19 Tennessee. He recorded a season-high 165 rushing yards and surpassed the 3,000-yard mark for passing — a feat Mendoza has not achieved. Pavia”s rushing prowess sets him apart from Mendoza and Sayin, boasting nearly 600 more rushing yards than Mendoza, who finished with negative rushing stats.
However, the question remains whether Pavia”s rushing ability is sufficient to eclipse Mendoza and Sayin, who both outperform him in passer rating and QBR, while also guiding their teams to undefeated regular seasons. The significance of team success is often debated in relation to individual awards, yet it must be considered. Pavia”s lowest QBR of the season occurred during a 16-point loss against Alabama, a game that had major implications for the SEC title and College Football Playoff.
This season, Indiana and Ohio State seemed destined to meet in the Big Ten Championship, culminating in an exciting matchup. Neither Mendoza nor Sayin had standout performances, with Mendoza completing 15 of 23 passes for 222 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a nail-biting 13-10 win. Sayin”s performance was slightly better at 21 of 29 with 258 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The low-scoring nature of the game may have opened the door for Pavia or Love, yet it is essential to note that both Indiana and Ohio State feature the nation”s top two scoring defenses.
Neither quarterback”s performance should significantly impact their Heisman chances, as their overall accomplishments throughout the season must be taken into account. While I do not possess a Heisman Trophy vote, if I did, it would certainly go to Mendoza. Analyzing his statistics against those of Pavia and Sayin reveals that Mendoza”s only shortcoming lies in total counting stats like yards, completions, and attempts, which reflect his limited playing time in lopsided victories.
Nevertheless, he led the nation in passing touchdowns and ranked within the top three for passer rating and QBR. Mendoza also guided Indiana to triumphs in challenging environments such as Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State, providing several memorable Heisman moments. He and the Hoosiers dominated their home opponents and secured a victory against the nation”s top-ranked team in the Big Ten title game. Pavia”s rushing statistics do not outweigh Mendoza”s achievements, and Sayin”s loss in their head-to-head matchup, combined with Love”s struggles at the season”s end, may hinder their chances.
