Geoff Schwartz anticipates a defensive showdown in the upcoming Fiesta Bowl between the Oregon Ducks and the Indiana Hoosiers. This matchup serves as a rematch of their earlier encounter in October, where Indiana triumphed over Oregon with a score of 30-20 at Autzen Stadium. Now, three months later, the teams clash again, each with something to prove.
Indiana remains undefeated this season, clinching the Big Ten title after defeating Ohio State. They followed this success by dominating Alabama in the Rose Bowl, winning 38-3. Conversely, Oregon has also maintained its winning streak since the last matchup, going 2-0 in the postseason. The Ducks dispatched James Madison with a score of 51-34 and secured a victory over Texas Tech, winning 23-0 in the Orange Bowl.
Despite both teams boasting potent offenses, Schwartz believes this game will lean towards the Under, primarily due to Oregon”s offensive struggles against top defenses. Throughout the season, the Ducks have had difficulty scoring efficiently against the four best defenses they faced, including Indiana. In their initial meeting, Oregon managed only 13 offensive points against the Hoosiers, and their scoring in other challenging games included 17 points at Penn State, 18 against Iowa, and 23 against Texas Tech.
Oregon”s offensive strategy largely relies on a strong rushing game, complemented by short passes, especially when facing formidable defenses. However, concerns at both tackle positions have led to negative plays, putting additional strain on their offensive performance. While Indiana may not feature the most formidable individual pass rushers, their collective pressure on quarterbacks has proven effective. To find success against the Hoosiers, Oregon will need to focus on running the ball approximately 35 to 40 times.
Indiana”s defense is known for preventing explosive plays and employing a heavy zone coverage scheme. Oregon”s passing game has struggled at times against such defenses, as evidenced in their previous clash with Indiana. Yet, the Ducks found some success on the ground, with their running backs accumulating 101 yards on 20 carries in that matchup, notwithstanding that overall rushing stats included quarterback sacks.
As for Indiana, they will enter this rematch without their star defensive tackle, who sustained an injury during the Big Ten title game. Additionally, Kellan Wyatt, who recorded 1.5 sacks against Oregon earlier in the season, will remain sidelined. Despite Indiana scoring 30 points in their first encounter, the total yardage was not as impressive. Excluding the final drive, where Indiana took kneel downs, they gained 343 yards, which aligns closely with their averages against other defenses comparable to Oregon”s.
In previous games against solid defenses, Indiana”s scores were noticeably lower than their typical output, with point totals of 20, 27, and 13 against Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State, respectively. Their efficiency stems from a straightforward yet effective offensive execution led by a quarterback capable of making all the necessary throws.
Oregon”s defense has shown improvements this season, also limiting explosive plays. Indiana”s three touchdown drives in their first meeting with Oregon were lengthy, consisting of nine, nine, and twelve plays. This methodical approach is how teams have found success against the Ducks in the past. Taking all factors into account, Schwartz firmly believes this game will yield a low score. His pick? The Under, set at 46.5 points for the combined score of both teams.
Geoff Schwartz serves as an NFL analyst for FOX Sports and has an extensive background, playing eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and earned second-team All-Pac-12 honors during his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz for more insights.
