The Arizona Cardinals have seen their chances of securing a top-five pick in the upcoming NFL Draft diminish due to the events of Monday Night Football.
After their Week 16 defeat against the Atlanta Falcons, the Cardinals briefly held the No. 5 draft position, moving up from No. 6 because of a marginally less challenging strength of schedule compared to the Tennessee Titans, which serves as the first tiebreaker in draft order. However, the San Francisco 49ers” victory over the Indianapolis Colts shifted the balance, pushing Arizona”s overall strength of schedule higher and allowing the Titans to reclaim the fifth spot with only two weeks left in the season.
Currently, the Cardinals are guaranteed to finish with at least the ninth overall pick, assuming they win their remaining games. They will face tough challenges on the road against the Bengals and Rams, where they are considered significant underdogs. Arizona”s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick are below one percent, while the probability of securing the No. 2 selection stands at eight percent. With quarterbacks potentially going first and second in the 2026 NFL Draft, Arizona could find itself in a difficult position if they do not secure a higher selection.
Nevertheless, the Cardinals have a 26 percent chance of landing either the No. 3 or No. 4 picks, suggesting that it is more likely than not that they will be selecting within the top four. General manager Monti Ossenfort has experience in these early draft positions, having chosen in two of his three previous drafts, making this a familiar scenario for him.
To round out their draft position probabilities, the Cardinals hold a 16 percent chance to select at No. 5 and a 14 percent chance to remain at No. 6. There is also a nine percent likelihood they will draft seventh or lower, with less than one percent chance for a pick in the eighth position or higher. Despite the setback caused by Monday Night Football, the Cardinals still maintain a fairly solid opportunity for a high draft pick.
Donnie Druin serves as the Publisher for Arizona Cardinals and Phoenix Suns on SI. Having moved to Arizona in 2012, he has been with the organization since 2018. In college, he received the “Best Sports Column” award in Arizona and has previously covered both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona State Sun Devils. Follow Donnie on Twitter @DonnieDruin for additional news and updates.
