The Miami Dolphins find themselves in a precarious situation regarding their playoff aspirations as they head into the final stretch of the season. Following the results of Week 15, the path to the postseason has become extremely challenging. To have any shot at returning to the playoffs after a year away, the Dolphins must secure victories in their last four games.
The upcoming matchups include a critical Monday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, followed by home games against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, concluding with a road game against the New England Patriots in the season finale on January 4-5. Achieving a 10-7 record would be a testament to the Dolphins” resilience, marking an impressive eight-game winning streak. However, any loss in these last four contests would eliminate them from playoff contention, potentially ending their hopes as early as Monday night if they fall to the Steelers.
Even if the Dolphins finish at 10-7, that record alone might not be sufficient to secure a playoff berth due to unfavorable tiebreaker scenarios. Currently, Miami sits in 10th place in the AFC standings, requiring them to leapfrog three teams to claim the seventh and final playoff spot. Five teams, including the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, and the AFC North champions, have already clinched better records or tiebreakers over Miami, making it impossible for the Dolphins to surpass them.
Four teams ahead of Miami, specifically the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Baltimore Ravens, present the possibility for the Dolphins to catch up. Notably, the Ravens are not a concern for Miami”s playoff hopes since the Dolphins” path hinges on defeating the Steelers. Should Miami win that game, the Steelers would fall to 7-7, creating a situation where the loser of the Week 18 matchup between Baltimore and Pittsburgh would end up with at least eight losses, thus allowing a 10-7 Miami team to surpass them.
The Dolphins need to overcome both the Bills and the Texans, who currently boast records of 10-4 and 9-5, respectively. For Miami to catch Buffalo, the Bills must lose all their remaining games, a tall order considering their upcoming opponents, including the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets. The Texans, on the other hand, would need to lose their last three games, which is complicated by their matchup against the struggling Las Vegas Raiders, who have lost numerous games this season.
As for the Colts, with an 8-6 record, Miami needs them to falter in at least two of their remaining games against formidable teams like the San Francisco 49ers and the Jacksonville Jaguars. If the Colts and Dolphins both finish at 10-7, Indianapolis would hold the advantage in the tiebreaker.
In summary, for the Dolphins to have a chance at the playoffs, the following must occur:
- Miami must win all four remaining games (at PIT, CIN, TB, at NE).
- Two of the following three outcomes must happen:
- Buffalo loses its final three games (at CLE, PHI, NYJ).
- Houston loses its final three games (LV, at LAC, IND).
- Indianapolis loses at least two of its final three games (SF, JAX, at HOU).
The Dolphins” quest for the playoffs is daunting, but with determination and a bit of luck, they might just find a way to return to postseason play.
