The New England Patriots narrowly avoided disaster last Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, managing to secure a playoff berth while maintaining a one-game lead in the AFC East. With Mike Vrabel emphasizing the importance of winning the division since his arrival, the Patriots are in a position to clinch the title this Sunday. However, this scenario hinges on two critical outcomes: the Buffalo Bills must lose to the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Patriots need to defeat the New York Jets on the road.
On paper, the Patriots should have the upper hand; the Jets are struggling with a record of 3-12 and are 13.5-point underdogs. Yet, a closer look at the matchup highlights potential pitfalls for New England.
Passing Game Analysis
In terms of the passing game, the Patriots” offense is set to face a Jets defense that ranks 30th in the NFL for expected points added per dropback at -0.119. The Jets have struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks, sitting at 29th in sacks with 25 and 30th in pressure rate at 16.1%. Further compounding their issues, the Jets traded away star cornerback Sauce Gardner and have been hit by injuries, resulting in zero interceptions this season. This bodes poorly against an MVP-caliber quarterback like Drake Maye. Despite some injury concerns on the Patriots” offense, this matchup heavily favors the visitors.
On the flip side, the Jets” rookie quarterback Brady Cook finds himself in a challenging position. He is not only undrafted but also working without his top receiving threat, Garrett Wilson, and potentially his best tight end, Mason Taylor. Although he has been pressured on only 26.1% of his snaps, Cook has endured 17 sacks in 89 dropbacks, leading to a staggering pressure-to-sack rate of 53.1%. With seven turnovers in three appearances, this game could serve as an opportunity for the Patriots” pass rush to capitalize.
Running Game Dynamics
Regarding the running game, the potential return of TreVeyon Henderson to practice is encouraging for New England, although left guard Jared Wilson remains in concussion protocol. The effectiveness of the Patriots” rushing attack will hinge on their availability. The Jets” run defense has been below average, ranking 18th in yards per run at 4.4 and 24th in expected points added per run at -0.036. However, their performance against the Patriots previously was competitive, and with no significant changes in personnel, it remains a concern. Assuming Henderson is cleared to play, New England could leverage a potent combination of him and Rhamondre Stevenson, who missed the first matchup.
Conversely, the Jets present a challenge with their rushing offense, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, bolstered by the home run threat of Breece Hall. The absence of both Khyiris Tonga and Robert Spillane from the Patriots” lineup could tilt the advantage slightly toward New York in this area.
Special Teams and Coaching Comparison
Special teams for the Patriots have had their ups and downs this season, with notable failures in their recent matchup against the Buffalo Bills. While the Jets have had success against the Patriots in the past, including strong performances in kickoff returns, the ageless Nick Folk leads the NFL in field goal percentage at 96.4% and has a perfect extra point success rate.
Coaching changes for the Jets, including the firing of defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, add uncertainty. His replacement, defensive backs coach Chris Harris, has not inspired confidence given the Jets” overall performance this season. In contrast, Mike Vrabel has maintained a steady course for the Patriots, giving them an edge in the coaching matchup.
In conclusion, while the Jets are far from a formidable opponent, they possess potential areas to exploit. The outcome will largely depend on the availability of key players. Nevertheless, with substantial advantages in crucial areas, particularly in passing and coaching, the Patriots are considered heavy favorites. A loss would not only be disappointing but could also raise concerns as the playoffs approach.
